The choice of whether to believe in such a ""confidence level"" is entirely up to an individual. In any case, the Birmingham results suggest that Lyon might not have botched the job after all.
Intriguingly, the first date dating someone you arent physically attracted to from Lyon в corresponds rather closely to the date range given from a laboratory in Oxford for the Birmingham manuscript в What is telling here is the fact that Reynolds, instead of using a scientific approach to look at the problem, applies his own reasoning that must necessarily accord with his preferred historical interpretation.
How does one make a rational choice as to which date, if any, out of these three is correct. The answer is that there is no way of knowing if Lyon botched the job unless these three dates are independently compared with those obtained from other labs. Reynolds makes no attempt to use the scientific method here. Nevertheless, the dating of these manuscripts has proven to be highly problematic and controversial.
It is hard because obviously you really like her, but there are plenty of women who would genuinely dating someone you arent physically attracted to to have a relationship with your nice self without the need to play games. I don't believe you have done anything wrong, so don't doubt yourself.
If pressed to give advice, I would say to distance yourself and move on. Easier said than done when you are emotionally invested, I know, but in the long run, I think you would be happier without her.
I'll try to keep it brief.